Easily Calculate Your Poker Drawing Odds and Equity
What is Poker Equity?
Poker equity is the probability of winning the hand. It's expressed as a percentage. When a player's equity is 0%, they've lost the hand. When a player's equity is 100%, they've won the hand. The sum of all players' equities in a hand equals 100%. Equity calculation is a central concept in poker hand analysis.
How to Calculate Poker Hand Equity?
To calculate equity precisely, divide the number of winning boards by the total number of possible boards. This involves calculating card and board combinations. If a board results in a split pot, it's divided by the number of players sharing the pot.
There are ways to quickly approximate your equity based on the number of outs that can win the hand.
What is a Poker Out?
An out is a card that allows you to win the hand in poker.
For example: If player A has 99 and player B has AK all-in preflop, player B wins if they hit one of the 3 remaining Aces or one of the 3 remaining Kings. We say they have 6 outs.
Outs allow you to quickly calculate your equity during a Texas Holdem hand.
How to Quickly Calculate Equity on the Flop?
To calculate your equity on the flop, simply multiply your number of outs by 4.
For example: During a flush draw to clubs, there are 9 clubs remaining in the deck. On the flop, we have approximately 9 x 4 = 36% equity.
How to Quickly Calculate Equity on the Turn?
To calculate your equity on the turn, simply multiply your number of outs by 2.
For example: During a flush draw to clubs, there are 9 clubs remaining in the deck. On the turn, we have approximately 9 x 2 = 18% equity.
Equity on the River
On the river, equity is fixed because all cards have already been dealt.
What Does EV Mean?
EV (Expected Value) is the mathematical expectation of profit from an action.
What Does EV0 Mean?
Being EV0 means having an expected value of 0. In the long run, the action will be neither winning nor losing. The profit will be zero. This is the point where an action transitions from losing to winning.
How to Calculate EV0 When Calling?
We're in a hand where the opponent bets and we want to calculate the necessary equity to call the bet.
We're looking to calculate when the average pot gain after calling equals the call amount.
- Average pot gain - Call = 0
- (POT + Bet + Call) * Equity - Call = 0 where Call = Bet
- (POT + Bet + Bet) * Equity - Bet = 0
- (POT + Bet + Bet) * Equity = Bet
- Equity = Bet / (POT + Bet + Bet)
The required equity to be EV0 equals Bet / (POT + Bet + Bet).
For example, if the pot is €10 and the bet is €5, EV0 = 5 / (10 + 5 + 5) = 25%.
How to Know When to Call with a Draw?
To know if you should call with a draw, your equity must be higher than the required equity to be EV0.
For example: If our equity is 36% (like with a flush draw on the flop), the pot is €10, and the bet is €5.
We calculate EV0 = 5 / (10 + 5 + 5) = 25%. Since our equity is higher than EV0 (36% > 25%), mathematically we should call the draw.